GfK Boutique Research
GfK OvernightNews
First published Tuesday 18 January 2012
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RESULTS/OUTLOOK
Earnings Calendar: THU GOOGLE, INTEL, SKYWORKS, MICROSOFT, SONY ERICSSON FRI LGD
* WESTERN DIGITAL expects its 2 Thailand factories to resume pre-flood production levels by SEP-12; flooding reduced its output 30% (Source: Forbes)
Jason: HDD impact could be less severe than previous industry expectations - especially for mobile PC as GfK data not shown any significant retail system price increase or spec reduction entering JAN
* ASUS brand business 2011 rev of NT$350bn; company maintaining Eee PC shipments at 4-5m (Source: Digitimes)
Liwen: Implies moderate upside to GfK's current 4Q projection and yesterday's report of NT$100bn for 4Q; Eee PC shipments projected towards higher-end of that range
* TSMC 4Q11 rev of NT$104.7bn, -2% q/q, -5% y/y; gross margin at 44.7%, +2.7pps q/q - both within guided range; Communications rev +6% q/q, Computer rev -13% q/q; expects 1Q12 rev at NT$103-105bn, gross margin at 42.5-44.5% (Source: Company)
* ASML 4Q11 rev of EUR1.2bn, -17% q/q, -20% y/y; record FY2011 rev of EUR5.7bn, +25% y/y; expects 1Q12 rev ~EUR1.2bn (Source: Company)
* Report: ACER likely to return to profitability in 2012 - expected to see notebook shipments to Europe grow 10-20% y/y in 2012 (Source: Digitimes)
* INOTERA 4Q11 rev of NT$8.7bn, -3% q/q, flat y/y; wafer shipments -7% q/q (Source: Company)
* LED lighting maker CREE F2Q12 (to 25 DEC) rev of US$304.1m, +13% q/q, +18% y/y - low end of guided range; targeting F3Q rev of US$290-310m (Sources: Company, Reuters)
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CROSS SECTOR
* Report: RIM 2012 roadmap rumours leak: 7" tablet launching ~APR, 10" LTE tablet launching DEC; 1st BlackBerry 10 smartphone launching SEP, 2 Blackberry 7 Curve devices for emerging markets (Source: Unwired View)
Mark on BB10: Corroborates RIM's announcement that BB10 will not appear until 'late 2012'
Mark on BB7 Curve: First rumour of a replacement for the resilient Curve 8520 (Gemini) - if true, a positive step for RIM as GfK data shows Gemini is driving much of RIM's emerging markets momentum
* APPLE files 2 further lawsuits against SAMSUNG in Germany, seeking to ban sales of 10 smartphones including Galaxy S Plus and Galaxy S II, and 5 tablets (Source: Bloomberg)
* SAMSUNG denies rumour it is interested in buying RIM or licensing BlackBerry OS; other Asian handset vendors may hold interest (Source: Reuters)
* MICROSOFT close to agreeing patent-licensing deal with PANTECH over Android devices; attempting similar deal with B&N, which has asked federal government to probe MICROSOFT's actions (Source: BGR)
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WIRELESS
* CHINA TELECOM to procure 45m 3G smartphones in 2012, selling most for CNY700-2,000 (US$111-316); expects its handset marketing subsidiary to sell 80m CDMA phones, including 45m 3G smartphones, in China in 2012 (Source: Digitimes)
* Report: TSMC seeing increased orders from wireless chip vendors, which are building inventories ahead of expected fast-growing 3G handset demand in China (Source: Digitimes)
Simic: In-line with GfK projecting strong 3G smartphone outlook in China for 2012, supported by aggressive carrier participation
* Report: SAMSUNG Galaxy S III possibly leaked in promo video: rumoured to include Super AMOLED Plus display; quad-core processor; Android 4.0; 2GB RAM; 12MP camera; price/availability unknown (Source: Unwired View)
Simic: If true, Galaxy S III is likely to lead the market in terms of hardware spec and continue to challenge APPLE in high-end segment
* SAMSUNG says all smartphones it launches in 2012 will last all day on a single charge, by moving to larger batteries and optimising other aspects (source: BGR)
* SAMSUNG to launch S5222 Duos dual-SIM featurephone: 3” QVGA touch display; 1GB storage; 3MP camera; price/availability unknown (Source: Unwired View)
* SAMSUNG clarifies position on Bada-Tizen OS merger: is still considering options on how to make the platforms better serve customers, has made no decision (Source: Ubergizmo)
* PLAY.COM UK places SONY Xperia S available on pre-order: launching 30 JAN - priced at GBP450 (US$690) vs MAR launch priced at GBP468 (US$720) at CLOVE UK (Source: Softpedia)
* CLOVE UK makes MOTOROLA Defy Mini available on pre-order: launching late FEB/early MAR - priced at GBP175 (USD269), shipping in late FEB or early MAR (Source: Company)
* VERIZON reduces MOTOROLA Droid Razr price by US$100 to US$200 on a 2-year contract (Source: BGR)
* Report: SONY smartphone pricing leaks: Xperia S launching MAR for EUR462 (US$588), Nypon launching APR for EUR370 (USD471), Kumquat launching APR for EUR262 (USD334) (Source: GSMarena)
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DISPLAY
* SAMSUNG to begin production of 46” transparent LCD panels this month: 1,366 x 768 resolution; 4,500:1 contrast; 70% colour gamut; its 22” transparent LCD panel has been well received (Source: Digitimes)
Agnes: This 46" panel will still just be targeting the B2B market, for decorative/marketing functions
* Report: Panel makers expecting shipments of new-size 39/50" panels to reach 1m, following DEC launches, with 50" LCD TVs launching ~JUN 2012 (Source: Digitimes)
* Report: TMD's in-cell touch panel yields reach 60%, vs less than 50% for LGD and SHARP (Source: Digitimes)
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TABLET
* Report: APPLE to hold media event early FEB to unveil iPad 3 and iOS 5.1, ahead of early MAR launch (Source: Apple Insider)
Jason: If true, further evidence (here and here) of a ~late 1Q launch
* Report: iPad 3 panel shipments will surpass those of iPad 2 panels in 2Q12, totalling 6-7m in 1Q before rising to 10m in 3Q (Source: Digitimes)
* Report: MICROSOFT Windows 8 minimum tablet specifications: 1,366 x 768 display resolution; 720p camera; 10GB storage space; Bluetooth 4.0; Direct3D 10 graphics; NFC; 5 hardware buttons (Source: Ubergizmo)
* LG unveils 1st LTE tablet - Optimus Pad LTE: 8.9" 1,280 x 720 IPS display; QUALCOMM 1.5GHz dual-core processor; 8MP and 2MP cameras; Android 3.2; 32GB storage; launching 1st in S. Korea - price/availability unknown (Source: Ubergizmo)
* FUJITSU showcases Stylistic M532 tablet: 1,280 x 800 display; NVIDIA Tegra 3 quad-core processor; 16GB storage; 8MP and 3MP cameras; Android 4.0; launching MAY - priced at US$630 (Source: Engadget)
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PC
* ASUS puts Eee PC X101CH/10125C netbooks up on pre-order in the US: 10.1” 1,026 x 600 display; INTEL Atom N2600 dual-core processor; 320GB HDD; 1GB memory; priced at US$269/299; availability unknown (Source: Softpedia)
Stefan: Contrary to broader netbook market trends, ASUS netbooks have shown strong momentum in 2011 and heading into 2012 - driven by double-digit y/y ASP decline
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COMPONENTS AND OTHERS
* BROADCOM says 802.11ac will become mainstream WLAN standard in 2013-14, has offered its 5G Wi-Fi chips based on the standard to vendors of various devices - should launch in TVs, Blu-ray players, smartphones and tablets in 4Q12/1Q13 (Source: Digitimes)
* Report: ELPIDA to seek equity partnership with MICRON - would establish entity with more than 20% DRAM market share (Source: Reuters)
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CHANNEL
* T-MOBILE US and WALMART update ‘Walmart Family Mobile Plan’: now offers unlimited mins, texts and data for US$45 a month, but data includes maximum 3G limit (Source: BGR)
Earnings Calendar: THU GOOGLE, INTEL, SKYWORKS, MICROSOFT, SONY ERICSSON FRI LGD
* WESTERN DIGITAL expects its 2 Thailand factories to resume pre-flood production levels by SEP-12; flooding reduced its output 30% (Source: Forbes)
Jason: HDD impact could be less severe than previous industry expectations - especially for mobile PC as GfK data not shown any significant retail system price increase or spec reduction entering JAN
* ASUS brand business 2011 rev of NT$350bn; company maintaining Eee PC shipments at 4-5m (Source: Digitimes)
Liwen: Implies moderate upside to GfK's current 4Q projection and yesterday's report of NT$100bn for 4Q; Eee PC shipments projected towards higher-end of that range
* TSMC 4Q11 rev of NT$104.7bn, -2% q/q, -5% y/y; gross margin at 44.7%, +2.7pps q/q - both within guided range; Communications rev +6% q/q, Computer rev -13% q/q; expects 1Q12 rev at NT$103-105bn, gross margin at 42.5-44.5% (Source: Company)
* ASML 4Q11 rev of EUR1.2bn, -17% q/q, -20% y/y; record FY2011 rev of EUR5.7bn, +25% y/y; expects 1Q12 rev ~EUR1.2bn (Source: Company)
* Report: ACER likely to return to profitability in 2012 - expected to see notebook shipments to Europe grow 10-20% y/y in 2012 (Source: Digitimes)
* INOTERA 4Q11 rev of NT$8.7bn, -3% q/q, flat y/y; wafer shipments -7% q/q (Source: Company)
* LED lighting maker CREE F2Q12 (to 25 DEC) rev of US$304.1m, +13% q/q, +18% y/y - low end of guided range; targeting F3Q rev of US$290-310m (Sources: Company, Reuters)
************************
CROSS SECTOR
* Report: RIM 2012 roadmap rumours leak: 7" tablet launching ~APR, 10" LTE tablet launching DEC; 1st BlackBerry 10 smartphone launching SEP, 2 Blackberry 7 Curve devices for emerging markets (Source: Unwired View)
Mark on BB10: Corroborates RIM's announcement that BB10 will not appear until 'late 2012'
Mark on BB7 Curve: First rumour of a replacement for the resilient Curve 8520 (Gemini) - if true, a positive step for RIM as GfK data shows Gemini is driving much of RIM's emerging markets momentum
* APPLE files 2 further lawsuits against SAMSUNG in Germany, seeking to ban sales of 10 smartphones including Galaxy S Plus and Galaxy S II, and 5 tablets (Source: Bloomberg)
* SAMSUNG denies rumour it is interested in buying RIM or licensing BlackBerry OS; other Asian handset vendors may hold interest (Source: Reuters)
* MICROSOFT close to agreeing patent-licensing deal with PANTECH over Android devices; attempting similar deal with B&N, which has asked federal government to probe MICROSOFT's actions (Source: BGR)
************************
WIRELESS
* CHINA TELECOM to procure 45m 3G smartphones in 2012, selling most for CNY700-2,000 (US$111-316); expects its handset marketing subsidiary to sell 80m CDMA phones, including 45m 3G smartphones, in China in 2012 (Source: Digitimes)
* Report: TSMC seeing increased orders from wireless chip vendors, which are building inventories ahead of expected fast-growing 3G handset demand in China (Source: Digitimes)
Simic: In-line with GfK projecting strong 3G smartphone outlook in China for 2012, supported by aggressive carrier participation
* Report: SAMSUNG Galaxy S III possibly leaked in promo video: rumoured to include Super AMOLED Plus display; quad-core processor; Android 4.0; 2GB RAM; 12MP camera; price/availability unknown (Source: Unwired View)
Simic: If true, Galaxy S III is likely to lead the market in terms of hardware spec and continue to challenge APPLE in high-end segment
* SAMSUNG says all smartphones it launches in 2012 will last all day on a single charge, by moving to larger batteries and optimising other aspects (source: BGR)
* SAMSUNG to launch S5222 Duos dual-SIM featurephone: 3” QVGA touch display; 1GB storage; 3MP camera; price/availability unknown (Source: Unwired View)
* SAMSUNG clarifies position on Bada-Tizen OS merger: is still considering options on how to make the platforms better serve customers, has made no decision (Source: Ubergizmo)
* PLAY.COM UK places SONY Xperia S available on pre-order: launching 30 JAN - priced at GBP450 (US$690) vs MAR launch priced at GBP468 (US$720) at CLOVE UK (Source: Softpedia)
* CLOVE UK makes MOTOROLA Defy Mini available on pre-order: launching late FEB/early MAR - priced at GBP175 (USD269), shipping in late FEB or early MAR (Source: Company)
* VERIZON reduces MOTOROLA Droid Razr price by US$100 to US$200 on a 2-year contract (Source: BGR)
* Report: SONY smartphone pricing leaks: Xperia S launching MAR for EUR462 (US$588), Nypon launching APR for EUR370 (USD471), Kumquat launching APR for EUR262 (USD334) (Source: GSMarena)
************************
DISPLAY
* SAMSUNG to begin production of 46” transparent LCD panels this month: 1,366 x 768 resolution; 4,500:1 contrast; 70% colour gamut; its 22” transparent LCD panel has been well received (Source: Digitimes)
Agnes: This 46" panel will still just be targeting the B2B market, for decorative/marketing functions
* Report: Panel makers expecting shipments of new-size 39/50" panels to reach 1m, following DEC launches, with 50" LCD TVs launching ~JUN 2012 (Source: Digitimes)
* Report: TMD's in-cell touch panel yields reach 60%, vs less than 50% for LGD and SHARP (Source: Digitimes)
************************
TABLET
* Report: APPLE to hold media event early FEB to unveil iPad 3 and iOS 5.1, ahead of early MAR launch (Source: Apple Insider)
Jason: If true, further evidence (here and here) of a ~late 1Q launch
* Report: iPad 3 panel shipments will surpass those of iPad 2 panels in 2Q12, totalling 6-7m in 1Q before rising to 10m in 3Q (Source: Digitimes)
* Report: MICROSOFT Windows 8 minimum tablet specifications: 1,366 x 768 display resolution; 720p camera; 10GB storage space; Bluetooth 4.0; Direct3D 10 graphics; NFC; 5 hardware buttons (Source: Ubergizmo)
* LG unveils 1st LTE tablet - Optimus Pad LTE: 8.9" 1,280 x 720 IPS display; QUALCOMM 1.5GHz dual-core processor; 8MP and 2MP cameras; Android 3.2; 32GB storage; launching 1st in S. Korea - price/availability unknown (Source: Ubergizmo)
* FUJITSU showcases Stylistic M532 tablet: 1,280 x 800 display; NVIDIA Tegra 3 quad-core processor; 16GB storage; 8MP and 3MP cameras; Android 4.0; launching MAY - priced at US$630 (Source: Engadget)
************************
PC
* ASUS puts Eee PC X101CH/10125C netbooks up on pre-order in the US: 10.1” 1,026 x 600 display; INTEL Atom N2600 dual-core processor; 320GB HDD; 1GB memory; priced at US$269/299; availability unknown (Source: Softpedia)
Stefan: Contrary to broader netbook market trends, ASUS netbooks have shown strong momentum in 2011 and heading into 2012 - driven by double-digit y/y ASP decline
************************
COMPONENTS AND OTHERS
* BROADCOM says 802.11ac will become mainstream WLAN standard in 2013-14, has offered its 5G Wi-Fi chips based on the standard to vendors of various devices - should launch in TVs, Blu-ray players, smartphones and tablets in 4Q12/1Q13 (Source: Digitimes)
* Report: ELPIDA to seek equity partnership with MICRON - would establish entity with more than 20% DRAM market share (Source: Reuters)
************************
CHANNEL
* T-MOBILE US and WALMART update ‘Walmart Family Mobile Plan’: now offers unlimited mins, texts and data for US$45 a month, but data includes maximum 3G limit (Source: BGR)
